Treasury Yields: Where Do They Go From Here?

Over the past few months intermediate- to long-term Treasury yields have moved higher by as much as 50 basis points,¹ despite moderating inflation pressures. Several factors have contributed to the uptrend:

• The economy has been more resilient than expected, raising concerns about inflation rebounding.
• There is still a risk for more Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• Worries that  the increasing supply of bonds that need to be issued due to rising fiscal deficits will mean that yields need to rise to find buyers.

While these concerns are likely to linger, we believe that they are largely discounted at current yields, and over the longer term we expect yields to fall. Short-term yields reflect market expectations that there may be one more rate hike of 25 basis points this year, while modest rate cuts are expected in the first half of 2024.

The rise in intermediate- to long-term yields reflects this potential for a “higher-for-longer” scenario. Intermediate- to long-term yields reflect expectations for the path of Fed policy plus a risk premium, or “term premium,” to compensate investors for tying up their money for longer periods of time. Consequently, with the Fed now expected to hold its benchmark federal funds rate² at current levels or even raise it again, intermediate- to long-term yields have moved up. In fact, the rise in yields so far this year has been driven more by the increase in this term premium than by rising inflation expectations.

We doubt the Fed will hike rates again in this cycle. After hiking the federal funds rate target to 5.5% from near zero in a little more than a year’s time, the impact of that policy tightening is showing up in economic data in the form of slower growth and lower inflation. Notably, the labor market, which is a key factor for the Fed in setting policy, is showing softness. Job openings have declined, hiring has slowed, wage growth is trending lower and the unemployment rate has ticked higher. The monthly pace of hiring has fallen to 150,000 on a rolling three-month basis, compared with more than 300,000 earlier this year. Wage growth is also slowing down, and the unemployment rate rose in August to 3.8%, the highest level since February 2022.

Moreover, inflation is abating. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s benchmark inflation measure—rose by just 0.2% last month, for a year-over-year increase of 4.2% in August. Meanwhile, the overall PCE, which includes food and energy, rose only 3.3% year-over-year in August. On a three-month annualized basis, the changes in the headline and core PCE were just 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively—very near the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

In addition, the cost and availability of credit have risen steeply. Bank lending standards have tightened, making the costs for business and consumer loans soar. Consequently, loan demand is falling. Meanwhile, corporate profits have fallen for four consecutive quarters as the cost of capital climbs. A slowdown in business borrowing is usually a negative sign for investment and hiring. On the consumer side, rising mortgage rates have led to a slowdown in the housing market, while high credit card rates are subduing consumer demand.

In addition, the increase in yields since the May low has come from higher “real” interest rates—that is, those adjusted for inflation. Inflation expectations have been steady, which should be reassuring to the Fed. Real interest rates are at the highest levels in more than a decade. At these levels, real rates are high enough to discourage business investment and spending.

The rise in the supply of Treasuries that needs to be absorbed by the market is likely to loom large for a while. The federal government budget deficit has risen sharply this year and is projected to continue to rise, based on estimates provided by the Congressional Budget Office. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is stepping back from accumulating bonds on its balance sheet, removing a significant buyer of bonds from the market.

These concerns may limit how low yields can go as long as the economy is growing. However, in the long run, the correlation between deficits and interest rates is not a strong one. Inflation is a far greater driver of yields. Currently, the impact on inflation is likely to be limited because much of the rise in the deficit is due to higher interest costs, which don’t tend to feed into inflation because they don’t flow through to consumers or businesses.

On the demand side, concerns about foreign investors reducing their exposure to Treasuries appears overblown. Some countries, such as China, appear to be selling their Treasury holdings to support declining currencies. When a country’s currency falls sharply, its central bank raises money through sales of their holdings to buy their own currencies. China’s currency has fallen to nearly a seven-year low versus the dollar, which likely accounts for the selling. However, overall holdings of U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors remain near the record highs reached last year.

With U.S. interest rates still higher than those in most other major countries and the dollar’s use in global transactions rising, foreign demand is likely to remain strong.

We see the risk that yields could push higher in the near term. Over the long run the declining trend in inflation and softness in economic growth should allow yields to fall from current levels later this year and into 2024. It’s likely to be a bumpy ride, given the cross currents in the market. It’s very difficult to time the interest rate market. Waiting in short duration bonds until the Fed is done hiking rates increases reinvestment risk. Yields are at the highest levels in a decade and we don’t expect them to stay that high for long.

Moreover, we believe that the Fed is done hiking rates in this cycle. In the past four cycles, 10-year Treasury yields peaked before the last rate hike and then tended to trend lower. It’s unusual for long-term yields to peak after the last Fed rate hike. It hasn’t happened since the 1970s and early 1980s. While we can’t rule out a further rise in yields in the near term, we continue to see opportunities for investors to capture attractive nominal and real yields in their portfolios at current levels.

Over the longer term, we look for yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to fall and suggest those higher yields present an opportunity to add duration to portfolios.